Avatar and its impact now and in the future

I hope most of you, readers, saw the new Cameron’s movie Avatar. It is a master piece of innovation and it is no wonder revenue are going thru the roof. Now why do I tell you that on this financial blog? Simply, it puts 3-D technology at the front scene.

Japan is full of well known companies that are competing to bring about the new TV of the future. The future of television is probably 3-D and the new Cameron’s movie is a great support for this technology. Macquarie’s US Analyst Chad Beyon has declared that he sees the move from 2-D to 3-D similar to the move from Analog to Digital. It is a big statement but he might be just right.

The Korean manufacturers, Samsung and LG, will start selling 3-D TV before the end of the first half of 2010. LG expects to sell 400 000 3-D TV in 2010. Displaysearch believes the market for 3-D TV in 2010 would be 1 300 000, while CEA’s survey shows that 25% of US consumer expects to buy a 3-D TV over the next three years.

So what are the Japanese players for this technology?

The Japanese, such as Panasonic (6752 JP), Toshiba (6502 JP) and Sony (6758 JP) are in the race as well. Panasonic has a comprehensive 3D PDP offering lined up. Toshiba's Cell technology offers 2D to 3D realtime conversion. For Sony, the establishment of the Blu-Ray Disc standard for 3D will allow for Blu-Ray 3D movies this year - a positive given Sony's content rich archive.

It will be hard for an investor to play the 3-D TV theme thru these big companies because TV revenues are just a small part of their total revenues. However, it is important to keep in mind who they are because it might just be the next thing after touch screen.

Pricing?

The next important question for the technology to enter the market aggressively is pricing. So far the prcing strategy is not known but a few market players are coming up with suggestions. For example Vizio has suggested that 3-D TV should be priced at a 10% premium to LED TVs, which would satisfy both the producers and the consumers.

I think it is unlikely to see such a small premium given that LED TVs are quit cheap these days. Maybe the premium will be over the top products, which would have a price around $2000 or more. At the same time, it is important to match consumers’ expectations if producers want to enjoy strong sales from this technology. Thus, maybe producers will find a way to keep prices low.

Below is a picture of one of Panasonic’s directors talking about their new 3-D PDP TV.